What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,901.68 open interest, creating a wide 8¢ bid-ask spread and an implausibly high 2,671% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pricing inefficiency rather than genuine expected value.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,901.68 open interest, creating a wide 8¢ bid-ask spread and an implausibly high 2,671% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pricing inefficiency rather than genuine expected value. The 14¢ price has declined 29% over seven days (from 6¢ to 5¢), suggesting either deteriorating conviction in the Jony Ive-OpenAI necklace announcement or reduced trader interest as the market approaches its 260-day expiry. With a moderate 19 cliff risk index and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative, thinly-traded position where the extreme yield metrics should be heavily discounted due to illiquidity constraints.
Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Necklace before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOAIHARDWARE-27-NECKLACE yes 100