↓ 72,500 · What price will Bitcoin hit in May
↓ 72,500 is priced at 78¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 75¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside What price will Bitcoin hit in May?.
Price history
78¢ current
+52¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
↓ 72,500
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
↓ 72,500 60¢
Range
0¢-60¢
Family volume
$33.5M
Identifier
0xba748fe5...529d
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$80K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · What price will Bitcoin hit in May?
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$33.5M
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
0xba748fe5…529d
Event family
What price will Bitcoin hit in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$33.5M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ 72,500 60¢
Current share
0%
↓ 72,500
polymarket · 0xba748fe5b263077b102337ad026180a998a230996a8b108e6d0418b869e7529d
↓ 70,000
polymarket · 0x27ad7baca4066891d8e8e5a4df38b164e95b56757041a5c198d24f9cd984b877
↑ 85,000
polymarket · 0x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837
↓ 65,000
polymarket · 0xde5ed16b575a0b1d100126266232653f1ba8e5709a4dd79b361491026f6cf65c
↑ 150,000
polymarket · 0x97947fe256c481e0f651723674a93ecf35c3999f782b56f41b40c31cb78b2af4
↑ 90,000
polymarket · 0x12587fe0cd6aa29260510a658db7d3e03de052bbc9d77ec29fbc4579a0999db1
↑ 95,000
polymarket · 0x40e923d788caaed2066daac648f76bbf8dbf04177e248724b4103467ae66d2ff
↓ 60,000
polymarket · 0xd72eb4440b11191d981c1ca0e4d363f42c84313067b3a29db721c6780218c2bf
↑ 100,000
polymarket · 0x4f61a39a39d5be042ae73f2b814e525789edb29c9a7b012fc6733f87192ce4b2
↓ 55,000
polymarket · 0x4998a7c5897df3b9dd879cec4f62ca776cd608eacd271ffb375a84f20f4f3d9c
↓ 35,000
polymarket · 0x1be2e3401a8547f4d535695eea21fad47e645205f3f643c4792ac00a71c07980
↑ 105,000
polymarket · 0x7f8f6342f0a0b8c90ff6113fdb9f9e5fb83a0fe24e3a409a2ab5f3305cee299a
↓ 45,000
polymarket · 0xbe9fdf78cc0d54ceadd94497ca032df3d35646e18f09442ce5a96a76f6c88363
↓ 50,000
polymarket · 0xe9894e3b49c49f930d87c016072bcd80ec7799b1caf6e1011517913c99f7df2f
↑ 120,000
polymarket · 0xf9ba42b5d92701b068800935b28f4218fa087773dfd36339ee8fb47ec4b8628e
↑ 110,000
polymarket · 0xbb75f6c9d3dfbd54b0506888925591b376bd1ab443d1ea93ff430bd3d9620506
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.