What price will Bitcoin hit in May?
Leader sits at 64% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 72,500
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
↑ 75,000
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$503K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in May
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?: ↓ 70,000
0x27ad7b…b877
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?: ↓ 72,500
0xba748f…529d
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?: ↑ 77,500
0x60e304…49f2
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?: ↑ 75,000
0x1d50ef…c0dc
Analysis
The market assigns a 45% probability that Bitcoin will close May 2026 below $72,500, based on aggregated trading activity across multiple prediction contracts. This reflects moderate uncertainty about near-term price movement, with roughly equal odds that Bitcoin either consolidates below this level or sustains higher prices. The probability is driven by current market volatility, macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, and technical resistance levels around $70,000–$72,500. Bitcoin's actual close on the final day of May will definitively resolve this question. Traders are actively positioning based on expectations around regulatory announcements, broader equity market correlation, and on-chain activity metrics that historically influence short-term price direction.
- ›Bitcoin's price action in the final week of May will determine the outcome; the contract resolves based on May 31 closing price
- ›Trading volume concentration on the $72,500 contract (72¢) versus the $70,000 contract (19¢) suggests market participants expect Bitcoin to remain above $70,000 but see material risk of the $72,500 level holding as resistance
- ›Macroeconomic data releases in late May (inflation reports, Fed communications, employment figures) could trigger volatility that shifts probabilities meaningfully
- ›Current 45% probability implies markets see this outcome as slightly less likely than Bitcoin staying above $72,500, not a toss-up
- ›The lower trading volume on the $77,500 upside contract (10¢) indicates less conviction around sustained rallies above current consolidation levels
What moved the line
- May 28↓ 72,500↑16pp36→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 28↑ 77,500↓12pp30→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 28↓ 70,000↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Signaling Bullish Conviction
The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 crashed 14¢ to just 21¢, and the June 30 contract fell 23¢ to 43¢. Markets are concluding that Michael Saylor will not sell, reinforcing a bullish Bitcoin supply narrative.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Skyrockets, Crypto Markets Wobble
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged +11 points to 40¢, while the probability for a sale by June 30 is now 71¢. This selling pressure narrative is weighing on Bitcoin prices, which are down alongside traditional risk assets.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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