What is the current probability for "Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 48¢ (48% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 161.8% and 137.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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48¢

Bid/Ask 1/94¢·Spread 93¢·Vol $0·OI $14.272·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x045ffcee329af1ea72d5f3b693eb2e026f709401f7f24433d9049d7888bc0bd9

7-day price737 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢48¢ current

Apr 812¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Hyperliquid 1-minute candle for Kinetiq (KNTQ/USDH) between January 25, 2026, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Hyperliquid, specifically the KNTQ/USDH “High” prices available at: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/KNTQ/USDH with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Hyperliquid KNTQ/USDDH price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 161.8%

IY (No) 137.9%

Adj IY 162%

CRI 1

RV 833%

VR 5.94

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	161.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	137.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	162%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	833%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.94	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

93¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 2:21:40 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 2:08:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x045ffcee329af1ea72d5f3b693eb2e026f709401f7f24433d9049d7888bc0bd9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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