Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026?

This market is pricing in only a 20% chance of Hyperliquid HIP-3 reaching $10B open interest by end-of-2026, despite the Yes side offering an exceptional 563.8% implied yield—a stark risk-reward asymmetry that suggests either significant underpricing or genuine skepticism about the protocol's growth trajectory. The $0 24-hour volume and wide 7¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable; with 259 days to expiry and $3.1M open interest, this appears to be a niche market with limited participant conviction. The cliff risk index of 4 combined with the neutral regime score suggests moderate binary event risk, though the lack of recent price movement (only 1¢ decline over 7 days) indicates stagnant market sentiment rather than active repricing toward resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest is equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is Artemis Analytics, using the Hyperliquid page available at: https://app.artemisanalytics.com/asset/Hyperliquid?tab=deep_dives The value used will be the “Total” open interest shown when hovering over a daily bar in the “HIP-3 DEXs by Open Interest” chart. A daily value is considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable public data sources.

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Regime

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