Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026?

The 79¢ price reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with the No side offering a 499.8% implied yield versus just 39.8% for Yes, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial downside protection for PUMP despite the high probability assignment. The $0 24-hour volume combined with a 7¢ spread on $686k open interest indicates severe illiquidity that likely exaggerates the 79% probability—this is a classic low-liquidity mispricing where the wide bid-ask gap makes the price unreliable. With 259 days to expiry, 215% realized volatility, and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market faces significant tail risk, particularly given the binary resolution mechanism that triggers on a single 1-minute candle touching $0.0014, making this vulnerable to flash crashes or wicks rather than sustained price movements.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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