Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $851k open interest and a massive 23¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 187% implied yield on the "Yes" side appears disconnected from fundamentals given Pump.fun would need to appreciate roughly 13,400% from current levels to hit $0.0034, yet the market assigns this a 43% probability with 259 days to expiration. The recent 4-point price movement (39¢ to 43¢) combined with 171% realized volatility and a neutral regime indicates this is a speculative, thinly-traded position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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