Will Pump.fun reach $0.0042 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing in only a 32% probability that Pump.fun reaches $0.0042, despite offering a striking 299% risk-adjusted yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting either significant skepticism about the token's appreciation potential or potential mispricing given the asymmetric payoff. The 7-day price collapse from 45¢ to 32¢ combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 31¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and possible capitulation selling, making the current price potentially unreliable. With 260 days to expiry and realized volatility at 239%, the market appears to be pricing in substantial downside risk, though the low information arrival rate (0.5/h) and neutral regime suggest limited catalyst flow to drive the token toward the target price.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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