What is the current probability for "Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1339.2% and 16.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 4/16¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $11,386.77·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0xe8d4c1e94092b5efefab326eac041507c05e047e8017b74d211c4b796151ea8d

7-day price273 snapshots · 4 regime

50¢10¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1339.2%

IY (No) 16.5%

Adj IY 1339%

CRI 9

RV 1955%

VR 4.49

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1339.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1339%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1955%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.49	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:01:19 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe8d4c1e94092b5efefab326eac041507c05e047e8017b74d211c4b796151ea8d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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