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What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030

Oil is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030.

Price history

58¢ current

+11¢
50¢60¢
May 28, 2026Jun 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Oil is the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Oil

Rank

#1 of 10

Leader

Oil 52¢

Range

1¢-52¢

Family volume

$57

Identifier

KXPRIMEENGCONSUMPTION-30-OIL

Jun 27, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

58¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 27, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

52¢

Ask

58¢

Spread

24h volume

$52

Family rank

#1 of 10

10 outcomes · What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030

Closes

Dec 30, 2032

Family volume

$57

Orderbook snapshot

52 / 58¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
52¢25
51¢25
50¢511
48¢5
47¢6
AskSize
58¢87
59¢525
64¢9
65¢5
68¢14

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Oil is the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 30, 2032

Identifier

KXPRIMEENGCONSUMPTION-30-OIL

SF Signal
SF Index
16.63
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

14.2%

IY (No)

16.6%

Adj IY

17%

CRI

1

RV

142%

VR

3.74

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

scientific

Full indicator table

14.2%
16.6%
Adj IY
17%
1
RV
142%
VR
3.74
IAR
0.6/h
Overround
-0.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.