What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Oil
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Coal
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$202
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 30, 2032
2427 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Oil
KXPRIMEENGCONSUMPTION-30-OIL
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Gas
KXPRIMEENGCONSUMPTION-30-GAS
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Coal
KXPRIMEENGCONSUMPTION-30-COAL
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that oil will remain the largest source of global primary energy consumption through 2030, with a 46% likelihood. The forecast depends on the trajectory of renewable energy adoption rates, competing energy sources like natural gas and coal, and global policy support for energy transitions. Major catalysts include International Energy Agency assessments, corporate energy investment announcements, and actual renewable capacity additions reported in the coming years. Current market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, with the runner-up outcome at 14% indicating no consensus on alternatives. The outcome will be determined by official energy statistics released around 2030-2031 measuring primary energy consumption across all sources.
- ›Global renewable energy capacity additions are accelerating; IEA data shows whether this pace sustains or decelerates relative to historical trends
- ›Oil demand growth or contraction in transportation, heating, and industrial sectors, particularly in developing economies
- ›Natural gas market share trends relative to coal retirement in developed nations and electrification rates in emerging markets
- ›Investment flows into renewable infrastructure versus fossil fuel projects, measured by annual capital expenditure reports
- ›Policy implementations affecting energy production costs, including carbon pricing mechanisms and subsidy changes across major economies
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.