What is the current probability for "What will Drake say during Iceman?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 30, 2026. 32 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will Drake say during Iceman?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15010.0% and 85.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "What will Drake say during Iceman?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

What will Drake say during Iceman?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that What will Drake say during Iceman?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 7/11¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $118.01·OI $583.9·Closes May 30, 2026·32d remaining

KXDRAKEMENTION-26MAY15-TRUM

7-day price88 snapshots · 3 regime

10¢7¢ current

Apr 231¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

If Drake says Trump as part of Iceman , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15010.0%

IY (No) 85.0%

Adj IY 4288%

CRI 13

RV 1105%

VR 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15010.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	85.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4288%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1105%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.71	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Computed

4/28/2026, 6:46:46 AM

Observability directEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 6:38:27 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDRAKEMENTION-26MAY15-TRUM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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