↓ 2.0% · What will Fed Rate hit before 2027
↓ 2.0% is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?.
Price history
5¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Outcome
↓ 2.0%
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
↓ 3.25% 26¢
Range
3¢-26¢
Family volume
$1.5M
Identifier
0xbfc96144...f99f
Jun 7, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$18K
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$1.5M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xbfc96144…f99f
Event family
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.5M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ 3.25% 26¢
Current share
1%
↓ 3.25%
polymarket · 0x70d8f4e6079e98fd9a34a8f6ce00a7dd3a73a924c9d9fab0664d516f38c6f280
↑ 4.25%
polymarket · 0x69f7294fab44b1a63575fcdff9b683d3c48a7f92a160aa274af8e2837a356e63
↓ 3.0%
polymarket · 0xdab002228af15d1cb3a161b3a584165eac9010d4419582c3c7d5d07d847c4256
↑ 4.5%
polymarket · 0x4f330fc689830668acf7d6e6e24dcd7450dc0387855f63aecbfac64b6d458650
↑ 4.75%
polymarket · 0x784b640e50d8db8ff5b36904fe9ecd1b3a261f4d3a0cd20adcfb7156e066ca78
↓ 1.5%
polymarket · 0xe8a621e745e7f05a582102109b45bb0fb23ce5d90848d977f75172eca041d448
↓ 2.75%
polymarket · 0x2bb4294142c311763ca6be27ceffcef132f5ac8281f98a62abe02f6e6a8c0107
↓ 2.5%
polymarket · 0xaa6145fb75147c5dda9bda894ed80353b14f23149b285893dd41e1edc8c0d4c2
↓ 0.25%
polymarket · 0x8be4f92d8396e675e220e15c1ca5bca527bc22dba01d586e2118096c1fe8a4a3
↓ 0.5%
polymarket · 0x4e15f0f425d28b87024ba9f19504e074da257e3d231d3222618a67c5c0f600ba
↓ 2.25%
polymarket · 0x0bbbcca922e19937c88530c715742a6c4c5d951e3e91e2c37d3053ed6e820c81
↓ 2.0%
polymarket · 0xbfc96144ac92b856a86dfde02939ccb9ec4bd997c424aa2f68b35dce0651f99f
↓ 0%
polymarket · 0x3983cda71404c649fd93c5efb200b83835bd67feb4593deab909417c93be5b5d
↑ 5.0%
polymarket · 0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb
↑ 5.5%
polymarket · 0x360247ba6b67009d19be741be7187abd59c5005e14be0914eb4e485f3b342c40
↑ 5.25%
polymarket · 0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.