Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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sf trade 0x2bb4294142c311763ca6be27ceffcef132f5ac8281f98a62abe02f6e6a8c0107 yes 100