What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Leader sits at 26% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 3.25%
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
↑ 4.25%
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 4.25%
0x69f729…6e63
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 5.0%
0x0a9571…e7bb
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 4.5%
0x4f330f…8650
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 3.0%
0xdab002…4256
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 3.25%
0x70d8f4…f280
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 5.5%
0x360247…2c40
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 2.75%
0x2bb429…0107
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 5.25%
0x728246…2c04
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 1.25%
0x803d10…3bff
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 1.75%
0x0c3753…aff9
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 1.5%
0xe8a621…d448
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 1.0%
0x9ee556…e02b
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 0.25%
0x8be4f9…a4a3
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 2.0%
0xbfc961…f99f
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 2.5%
0xaa6145…d4c2
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↑ 4.75%
0x784b64…ca78
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 0.75%
0x58c9cd…5b83
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 0.5%
0x4e15f0…00ba
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 0%
0x3983cd…5b5d
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?: ↓ 2.25%
0x0bbbcc…0c81
Analysis
This contract predicts whether the federal funds rate will fall below 3.25% at any point before the end of 2026. The 51% probability indicates traders view a rate cut of roughly 75–100 basis points as moderately likely over the next seven months. The current assessment reflects tension between two scenarios: persistent inflation could keep rates elevated, while economic weakening or financial stress could force the Fed to cut faster than currently anticipated. The Fed's next policy decisions through December, along with inflation data and labor market conditions reported monthly, will drive movements. The key catalyst is the Fed's June 2026 meeting, where forward guidance will signal the committee's intent on the cutting trajectory.
- ›Current federal funds rate is approximately 4.25–4.5%; reaching 3.25% requires 100+ basis points of cumulative cuts within 7 months
- ›Recent inflation prints and core PCE readings determine whether the Fed has room to cut without reigniting price pressures
- ›Employment data and jobless claims suggest labor market slack; weaker numbers increase cut probability, stronger data supports higher-for-longer rates
- ›The 51% lead contract dominates volume, but the 23% runner-up indicates meaningful disagreement on whether cuts will occur at this magnitude
- ›Fed funds futures markets and FOMC forward guidance as of early June 2026 will be the primary price-discovery mechanism
What moved the line
- Jun 2↓ 3.25%↑15pp27→42¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3↓ 3.25%↓9pp42→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↑ 4.25%↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↑ 4.5%↑3pp6→9¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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