↓ 3.25% · What will Fed Rate hit before 2027
↓ 3.25% is priced at 31¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 26¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?.
Price history
31¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Outcome
↓ 3.25%
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
↓ 3.25% 32¢
Range
3¢-32¢
Family volume
$1.5M
Identifier
0x70d8f4e6...f280
Jun 6, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$74K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$1.5M
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x70d8f4e6…f280
Event family
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.5M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ 3.25% 32¢
Current share
5%
↓ 3.25%
polymarket · 0x70d8f4e6079e98fd9a34a8f6ce00a7dd3a73a924c9d9fab0664d516f38c6f280
↑ 4.25%
polymarket · 0x69f7294fab44b1a63575fcdff9b683d3c48a7f92a160aa274af8e2837a356e63
↓ 3.0%
polymarket · 0xdab002228af15d1cb3a161b3a584165eac9010d4419582c3c7d5d07d847c4256
↓ 2.75%
polymarket · 0x2bb4294142c311763ca6be27ceffcef132f5ac8281f98a62abe02f6e6a8c0107
↑ 4.75%
polymarket · 0x784b640e50d8db8ff5b36904fe9ecd1b3a261f4d3a0cd20adcfb7156e066ca78
↓ 1.5%
polymarket · 0xe8a621e745e7f05a582102109b45bb0fb23ce5d90848d977f75172eca041d448
↑ 4.5%
polymarket · 0x4f330fc689830668acf7d6e6e24dcd7450dc0387855f63aecbfac64b6d458650
↓ 2.5%
polymarket · 0xaa6145fb75147c5dda9bda894ed80353b14f23149b285893dd41e1edc8c0d4c2
↓ 0.25%
polymarket · 0x8be4f92d8396e675e220e15c1ca5bca527bc22dba01d586e2118096c1fe8a4a3
↓ 0.5%
polymarket · 0x4e15f0f425d28b87024ba9f19504e074da257e3d231d3222618a67c5c0f600ba
↓ 2.25%
polymarket · 0x0bbbcca922e19937c88530c715742a6c4c5d951e3e91e2c37d3053ed6e820c81
↓ 2.0%
polymarket · 0xbfc96144ac92b856a86dfde02939ccb9ec4bd997c424aa2f68b35dce0651f99f
↓ 0%
polymarket · 0x3983cda71404c649fd93c5efb200b83835bd67feb4593deab909417c93be5b5d
↑ 5.5%
polymarket · 0x360247ba6b67009d19be741be7187abd59c5005e14be0914eb4e485f3b342c40
↑ 5.0%
polymarket · 0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb
↑ 5.25%
polymarket · 0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.