Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Gold would need to surge roughly 23% from current levels to hit $8,000 by end-2026, yet the market prices this at only 13% probability with extremely thin liquidity of just $1.1K in daily volume.
Analysis
Gold would need to surge roughly 23% from current levels to hit $8,000 by end-2026, yet the market prices this at only 13% probability with extremely thin liquidity of just $1.1K in daily volume. The 944% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe underpricing relative to the binary outcome, though the recent 18% price decline over seven days and moderate cliff risk (7/10) suggest recent skepticism about this move despite the asymmetric payoff structure.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
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sf trade 0x90e5f1d7ef37eab2dc577c37770599c8588e797e378ab589d26afe2cffc79f4a yes 100