What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in April 2026?
Leader sits at 86% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $4,300
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
43¢
↓ $4,200
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $3,800
0x1680cb…86ca
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,200
0x8cf61b…0a9f
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $4,900
0x1f4782…eece
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,300
0x29a63e…b76c
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $6,000
0x75546d…345d
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $5,000
0x6dd1f0…5341
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $15,000
0xc44228…382e
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $8,000
0x90e5f1…9f4a
What moved the line
- Jun 6↓ $4,300↑30pp49→79¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ $4,200↑14pp19→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ $4,300↑14pp35→49¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ $4,200↑11pp33→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 31↑ $4,900↓10pp24→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in markets
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 13% · 1d
- Where are oil prices heading?last 18% · 1d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 2d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 2d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.