What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Leader sits at 23% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $6,000
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
↑ $7,000
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
211 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $6,000
0x75546d…345d
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $15,000
0xc44228…382e
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $8,000
0x90e5f1…9f4a
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $7,000
0x284e9f…6c66
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $10,000
0x63f5b6…4072
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $12,000
0xd004d5…f87f
Analysis
This contract reflects a 31% market probability that gold will exceed $15,000 per troy ounce by December 31, 2026. Gold is currently trading near $2,400, meaning the contract requires approximately a 525% gain in seven months. The probability is driven by expectations around US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical risk premiums. Near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and developments in international conflicts that historically support gold demand. Liquidity in the June contracts suggests traders are pricing near-term consolidation, with the $4,300 downside contract trading at 30¢—indicating material concern about price pullback. The wide gap between current price and the $15,000 strike means this contract is pricing a significant macroeconomic shock or policy shift rather than normal market evolution.
- ›Gold would need to appreciate approximately 525% from current levels (~$2,400) to reach $15,000, a move unprecedented in modern commodity markets
- ›US interest rate policy and real yields are the primary driver—sustained rate cuts would reduce opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
- ›Geopolitical instability and central bank accumulation have supported gold demand; escalation of existing conflicts or new crises would increase probability
- ›The June contracts trade at 3-5¢, suggesting market participants assign minimal probability to explosive near-term moves, with downside hedging (30¢ on the $4,300 put) indicating defined risk below current levels
- ›Historical gold volatility and technical resistance levels suggest $15,000 would require a regime shift in inflation expectations, currency valuations, or systemic financial stress
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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