SimpleFunctions

↓ $4,200 · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June

↓ $4,200 is priced at 44¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 42¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

44¢ current

+27¢
25¢50¢
May 8, 2026Jun 7, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Outcome

↓ $4,200

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

↓ $4,300 85¢

Range

0¢-85¢

Family volume

$5.3M

Identifier

0x8cf61b7b...0a9f

Jun 7, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 7, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

42¢

Ask

45¢

Spread

24h volume

$841

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$5.3M

Orderbook snapshot

42 / 45¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
42¢63
41¢23
40¢5
39¢13
38¢5
37¢46
36¢31
35¢41
AskSize
45¢52
47¢3
49¢26
50¢22
51¢10
55¢93
56¢170
57¢424

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x8cf61b7b…0a9f

SF Signal
SF Index
2100.21
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$5.3M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $4,300 85¢

Current share

7%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $4,300

polymarket · 0x29a63e3c3163446dfe747e94e41109b5f4061f708e6ac91cd3c715649bf7b76c

85¢
$81K$556

↓ $4,200

polymarket · 0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f

44¢
$361K$988

↓ $3,800

polymarket · 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca

6¢
$142K$2K

↑ $4,900

polymarket · 0x1f478289d98ce38307785bfc98b1f05aaf31680ad52b498ec0a668098281eece

5¢
$70K$7

↑ $5,000

polymarket · 0x6dd1f06973b667ea65c25dd5735480bb811f8a342e7cd93045634a4891ff5341

3¢
$74K$361

↑ $5,500

polymarket · 0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f

1¢
$1.3M$98

↓ $3,400

polymarket · 0xf412c94446fa1a6e51e96e65860c0a0d0dfe6ef49e209dfd849269fa24201892

1¢
$394K$3K

↑ $6,000

polymarket · 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232

1¢
$366K$191

↑ $6,200

polymarket · 0x41321cf6f7de3f4cd158b99b3c3f51b0e1c807f5c3a7ab9d0140c24fbdf54b38

1¢
$125K$179

↑ $5,700

polymarket · 0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd

1¢
$112K$20

↑ $7,000

polymarket · 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956

0¢
$622K$954

↑ $8,500

polymarket · 0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810

0¢
$422K$5K

↑ $8,000

polymarket · 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80

0¢
$397K$3K

↑ $10,000

polymarket · 0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471

0¢
$337K$10K

↑ $6,500

polymarket · 0xb5799004182dc796006345365f449ceead54be4f8f20e5e1290ce57d16d2b8a3

0¢
$308K$80

↑ $9,000

polymarket · 0x7abd4cc8b0e4cb0adec29103b57e8af7e0ce0855bf604e4eae40129aab0c206f

0¢
$138K$6K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2100.2%

IY (No)

1296.6%

Adj IY

2100%

CRI

1

RV

762%

VR

1.58

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

2100.2%
1296.6%
Adj IY
2100%
1
RV
762%
VR
1.58
IAR
1.2/h
Overround
0.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.