What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Leader sits at 62% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $4,400
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
↓ $4,300
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
25 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $3,800
0x1680cb…86ca
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,200
0x8cf61b…0a9f
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,400
0x9873e4…1642
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $4,800
0x175764…0493
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $4,300
0x29a63e…b76c
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $4,900
0x1f4782…eece
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $5,000
0x6dd1f0…5341
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $5,200
0x533e92…1ad1
Analysis
The prediction market is pricing a 69% likelihood that gold futures will exceed $7,000 per troy ounce by the end of June 2026—roughly eight weeks away. Gold's trajectory depends on two primary dynamics: the strength of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy direction. A weaker dollar typically supports higher gold prices, while expectations of sustained high interest rates can suppress demand. The most immediate catalyst is Fed communications around interest rate decisions, with any signals of rate cuts potentially accelerating gold appreciation. Secondary drivers include geopolitical risk events, inflation data releases, and shifts in central bank purchasing patterns. Currently, the market assigns higher probabilities to more modest gold prices ($5,700–$6,200 range based on contract pricing), suggesting the $7,000 threshold requires either material macro shifts or sustained crisis dynamics over the next two months.
- ›Gold would need to appreciate approximately 8–10% from typical late-April 2026 levels to reach $7,000, a substantial move in a compressed two-month timeframe
- ›US dollar weakness and Fed rate-cut expectations are the primary levers; any official guidance suggesting imminent rate cuts would likely push this probability higher
- ›Lower-priced contracts ($5,700–$6,200) show significantly higher trading volume than the $7,000 outcome, suggesting market consensus leans toward more moderate appreciation
- ›Geopolitical escalation, banking sector stress, or significant inflation surprises could trigger the rapid gold appreciation needed to clear the $7,000 level
- ›The probability gap between the current leader (69%) and runner-up (53%) indicates material disagreement on whether macro conditions will shift sufficiently by June 30
What moved the line
- May 29↓ $4,300↓28pp68→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 29↓ $4,400↓19pp79→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 31↑ $4,800↓17pp41→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 28↓ $4,300↑14pp54→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 30↓ $4,400↓10pp60→50¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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