SimpleFunctions

↓ $4,500 · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June

↓ $4,500 is priced at 97¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 95¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

97¢ current

+40¢
50¢75¢100¢
Apr 27, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Outcome

↓ $4,500

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

↓ $4,500 97¢

Range

0¢-97¢

Family volume

$4.8M

Identifier

0x84f92ff1...e555

May 27, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

97¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

95¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

24h volume

$492

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$4.8M

Orderbook snapshot

95 / 99¢

Polymarket
4¢ spread
BidSize
95¢5.0K
89¢200
88¢100
73¢11
73¢17
72¢12
71¢12
70¢25
AskSize
99¢8
99¢28
99¢13
100¢17K
100¢100
100¢137

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x84f92ff1…e555

SF Signal
SF Index
17201.10
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4.8M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $4,500 97¢

Current share

1%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $4,500

polymarket · 0x84f92ff1f6113091642502836b5a06b66079597ebbb8d5514eadd330d07fe555

97¢
$44K$492

↓ $4,200

polymarket · 0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f

23¢
$319K$3K

↑ $5,000

polymarket · 0x6dd1f06973b667ea65c25dd5735480bb811f8a342e7cd93045634a4891ff5341

9¢
$60K$1K0.2

↓ $3,800

polymarket · 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca

4¢
$117K$950.5

↑ $5,300

polymarket · 0x2bb5098144ef44990b0ae257df8db0fa66af0a5093a9a651bf8b63d1c546bd5f

3¢
$59K$58

↑ $5,500

polymarket · 0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f

2¢
$1.3M$175

↓ $3,400

polymarket · 0xf412c94446fa1a6e51e96e65860c0a0d0dfe6ef49e209dfd849269fa24201892

2¢
$376K$75

↑ $7,000

polymarket · 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956

1¢
$557K$303

↑ $8,000

polymarket · 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80

1¢
$384K$150

↑ $6,000

polymarket · 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232

1¢
$337K$603

↑ $6,500

polymarket · 0xb5799004182dc796006345365f449ceead54be4f8f20e5e1290ce57d16d2b8a3

1¢
$266K$42

↑ $9,000

polymarket · 0x7abd4cc8b0e4cb0adec29103b57e8af7e0ce0855bf604e4eae40129aab0c206f

1¢
$121K$100

↑ $6,200

polymarket · 0x41321cf6f7de3f4cd158b99b3c3f51b0e1c807f5c3a7ab9d0140c24fbdf54b38

1¢
$109K$79

↑ $5,700

polymarket · 0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd

1¢
$107K$13

↑ $8,500

polymarket · 0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810

0¢
$411K$210

↑ $10,000

polymarket · 0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471

0¢
$247K$613

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

70.1%

IY (No)

17201.1%

Adj IY

17201%

CRI

16

RV

507%

VR

5.73

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

70.1%
17201.1%
Adj IY
17201%
16
RV
507%
VR
5.73
IAR
2.0/h
Overround
2.2%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.