SimpleFunctions

↑ $4,800 · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June

↑ $4,800 is priced at 37¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 21¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

37¢ current

13¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 13, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Outcome

↑ $4,800

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

↑ $4,800 25¢

Range

1¢-25¢

Family volume

$4.8M

Identifier

0x175764b1...0493

May 27, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

37¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

21¢

Ask

29¢

Spread

24h volume

$464

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$4.8M

Orderbook snapshot

21 / 29¢

Polymarket
8¢ spread
BidSize
21¢22
13¢29
12¢353
11¢171
10¢188
9¢418
8¢138
7¢817
AskSize
29¢8
30¢84
33¢88
50¢10
63¢136
64¢247
69¢113
79¢171

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x175764b1…0493

SF Signal
SF Index
3236.96
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4.8M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↑ $4,800 25¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↑ $4,800

polymarket · 0x175764b1ef610460ba525853ae675eaa0e3f8d0080b1af6b45891402560c0493

25¢
$1K$680

↓ $4,200

polymarket · 0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f

18¢
$316K$2K0.1

↑ $5,000

polymarket · 0x6dd1f06973b667ea65c25dd5735480bb811f8a342e7cd93045634a4891ff5341

12¢
$59K$6140.2

↓ $3,800

polymarket · 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca

4¢
$117K$4K0.5

↑ $5,300

polymarket · 0x2bb5098144ef44990b0ae257df8db0fa66af0a5093a9a651bf8b63d1c546bd5f

3¢
$58K$3300.0

↑ $5,500

polymarket · 0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f

2¢
$1.3M$4K

↓ $3,400

polymarket · 0xf412c94446fa1a6e51e96e65860c0a0d0dfe6ef49e209dfd849269fa24201892

2¢
$376K$345

↑ $6,500

polymarket · 0xb5799004182dc796006345365f449ceead54be4f8f20e5e1290ce57d16d2b8a3

2¢
$266K$3K

↑ $7,000

polymarket · 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956

1¢
$557K$15

↑ $8,500

polymarket · 0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810

1¢
$410K$216

↑ $8,000

polymarket · 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80

1¢
$384K$35

↑ $6,000

polymarket · 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232

1¢
$336K$345

↑ $10,000

polymarket · 0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471

1¢
$247K$468

↑ $9,000

polymarket · 0x7abd4cc8b0e4cb0adec29103b57e8af7e0ce0855bf604e4eae40129aab0c206f

1¢
$121K$172

↑ $6,200

polymarket · 0x41321cf6f7de3f4cd158b99b3c3f51b0e1c807f5c3a7ab9d0140c24fbdf54b38

1¢
$109K$27

↑ $5,700

polymarket · 0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd

1¢
$107K$20

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3237.0%

IY (No)

359.7%

Adj IY

3237%

CRI

3

RV

1581%

VR

4.27

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3237.0%
359.7%
Adj IY
3237%
3
RV
1581%
VR
4.27
IAR
1.0/h
Overround
1.8%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract

When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

The Settlement Halo: Microstructure Changes in the Final 24 Hours

How spreads, volume, and maker behavior change in the 24 hours before a prediction market resolves, why it happens, and three trading implications.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Pin Risk in Binary Settlements: When 0.50 Becomes 0.00 or 1.00

A binary at 50¢ at resolution settles to one of two corners with no gradient. The variance peaks at the middle and the only defense is to close. Worked example with FOMC.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.