Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
This contract is priced at 56¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
9
Family volume
$21.6M
Best sibling
Jesus Christ returns 49¢
Ticker
0x9c1a953f…5763
Price history
56¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
55 / 56¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x9c1a953f…5763
Event family
What will happen before GTA VI.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$21.6M
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Drake releases Iceman 98¢
Current share
8%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
polymarket · 0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763
Jesus Christ returns
polymarket · 0x32b09f6390252b37d674501527e709016d55581b2c1e544bd4b8167f5f732f4c
Bitcoin hits $1m
polymarket · 0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2
China invades Taiwan
polymarket · 0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11
New Playboi Carti Album
polymarket · 0x50ddb9cd80d5c271664a2ebb7fcaed1d0a148d82c8e8d314d830f75a944c3dcc
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polymarket · 0x1fad72fae204143ff1c3035e99e7c0f65ea8d5cd9bd1070987bd1a3316f772be
Trump out as President
polymarket · 0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9
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polymarket · 0x0ea8005efbc460378340a2f28a6d97b0d1d9d9d7fba4d16f529b8a415dca77a2
Drake releases Iceman
polymarket · 0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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