What will happen before GTA VI
Leader sits at 53% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
GPT-6 released
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
New Rihanna Album
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
42 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Jesus Christ returns
0x32b09f…2f4c
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
What will happen before GTA VI?: New Rihanna Album
0x1fad72…72be
What will happen before GTA VI?: China invades Taiwan
0x7b49b9…0f11
What will happen before GTA VI?: Trump out as President
0x84f8b7…66e9
What will happen before GTA VI?: New Playboi Carti Album
0x50ddb9…3dcc
What will happen before GTA VI?: GPT-6 released
0x0ea800…77a2
What will happen before GTA VI?: Another Pandemic
0x71b1cc…b59e
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations for significant global events occurring before Grand Theft Auto VI's release, with the leading outcome currently priced at 97% probability. The extreme pricing suggests either very short time remaining until game launch or high confidence in a particular outcome's inevitability. Market participants are pricing in substantial events ranging from religious prophecy to cryptocurrency milestones to geopolitical developments, with Bitcoin hitting $1 million and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire trading near 50 cents. The resolution depends entirely on Rockstar Games' official release date announcement and timing—if GTA VI launches imminently, most outcomes become impossible; if significantly delayed, probabilities shift materially. Substantial trading volume across contracts indicates genuine uncertainty about both the game's timeline and which events might materialize first.
- ›Rockstar Games has not officially announced a GTA VI release date as of May 2026; market odds likely compress sharply upon any official announcement
- ›The 97% leader price suggests an outcome with either extremely high base probability or very limited time window for alternatives to occur
- ›Top alternative outcomes (Bitcoin $1M, Jesus Christ return, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire) trade between 29-55 cents, indicating modest but non-trivial market assessment of their pre-release likelihood
- ›Contract volumes ranging from $2.7K-$5.3K daily suggest limited liquidity and potentially high sensitivity to single trades or new information
- ›The multi-outcome structure creates incentives for participants to arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi prices on overlapping events
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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