What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 82% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ $2.90
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
↓ $2.80
Spread
50pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$49K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $2.90
0xd20e6e…10db
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $3.60
0x84088f…566d
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $3.40
0x44ef43…b235
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $3.20
0xc571f7…1040
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $2.80
0x34c7a1…4a8f
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $2.60
0x230032…32f0
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $2.70
0x92709f…5369
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 61% chance that natural gas will trade at or above $3.20 during May 2026. This outcome has concentrated significantly more trading volume ($4,102 in 24 hours) than alternative outcomes, suggesting traders view this price level as the most likely scenario. The contract structure implies markets are assessing both upside moves toward $3.40 and downside risks toward $2.60–$2.80. Natural gas prices typically respond to seasonal demand shifts, storage inventory levels reported weekly by the EIA, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling demand, and global LNG export dynamics. Resolution depends on actual spot prices hitting the specified thresholds during May's trading month. The substantial gap between the leading contract (61¢) and the runner-up (25¢) indicates reasonable conviction, though significant disagreement persists about whether prices will remain elevated or decline.
- ›EIA weekly natural gas storage reports through May show either inventory builds (bearish for price floor support) or draws (supporting higher prices)
- ›Weather forecasts and actual temperatures during May affect near-term demand; unseasonably warm weather pressures prices downward
- ›Liquefied natural gas export capacity utilization and global LNG spot prices influence US Henry Hub pricing through arbitrage dynamics
- ›Trading volume concentration at $3.20 threshold versus lower volumes at $2.60–$2.80 suggests market participants see current price levels as less likely than continuation near $3.20
What moved the line
- May 22↑ $3.20↓42pp80→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $2.90↑29pp12→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↓ $2.90↑20pp46→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 20↓ $2.90↓12pp31→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↑ $3.40↓12pp17→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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