SimpleFunctions

↓ $68 · What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in May 2026

↓ $68 is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in May 2026?.

Price history

11¢ current

12¢
25¢
May 18, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Outcome

↓ $68

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

↑ 78 71¢

Range

1¢-71¢

Family volume

$290K

Identifier

0xefeccfd4...e505

May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

11¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

12¢

Spread

24h volume

$689

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$290K

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 12¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢2.0K
10¢150
9¢550
8¢300
5¢224
4¢50
3¢649
2¢2.7K
AskSize
12¢1.4K
13¢50
14¢100
15¢6
17¢386
21¢50
52¢10
54¢20

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0xefeccfd4…e505

SF Signal
SF Index
16441.84
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$290K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↑ 78 71¢

Current share

10%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↑ 78

polymarket · 0x44c041c3e5cbcf6427aaf17ab7264534cba1d51bc3d7f8bce1a9e959880f6027

71¢
$11K$7K0.1

↑ $80

polymarket · 0x82938684ba690736d6370e1a71620908cce5e4161f57a65a5e5bbd2d3ebb66ae

56¢
$15K$11K0.0

↓ $72

polymarket · 0xb3bad95956d5159f02b1f4f111a5599d0640aa3922519a163463d92ed957e294

28¢
$114K$4K0.1

↑ $82

polymarket · 0xb1f3a2ad26642ea229f910477f69722f6063bff8e4b9bbafe23f51d1bea6c06f

28¢
$4K$9060.2

↑ $84

polymarket · 0x260556bcae1e45e79027bff0402b08eaae0cad5f987202e8a0dc618ca9a15e59

22¢
$3K$1K

↓ $70

polymarket · 0xde02f529a5879d58084bff055813e6d16ff8af852220eeec3573947cf9cbf617

19¢
$34K$1K

↑ $88

polymarket · 0x1a0b130215696e0b6a19fb4111c28d26eaf6416951657abe8473fe9d87a9ffe2

13¢
$2K$1K0.4

↓ $68

polymarket · 0xefeccfd4c7d7aec05e3abe8dcdd95a6b394171cf877ca7457190d30bd970e505

11¢
$30K$6890.2

↑ $90

polymarket · 0xcad6355dc9ece9a55cf5e270e755572311eabe56923aff74889efe63426712af

9¢
$18K$2K0.1

↓ $66

polymarket · 0x1166cb8576d8d3fbb2cf116229248a83210abc0858db0861a7eaac35667d4690

9¢
$12K$76

↓ $64

polymarket · 0x11451e99f5325af0344f05b05b6818602dff8c5200dcd9ae56753e05e3f60774

6¢
$4K$114

↑ $92

polymarket · 0xb43d210326df432b3ea7c511229c9db66d7c92790e0f4ad65d14f7d564a6a3f8

5¢
$16K$1K

↑ $96

polymarket · 0x4046a977aad1ffe8f0d08912a0a1858b26cc939ade8376c34d6ee6e9514d4fc9

3¢
$5K$1K0.7

↑ $98

polymarket · 0x274d7b517f3675842a78f756996f5a40e0a0036730bb4007685add74b755cd20

3¢
$4K$1K1.0

↓ $62

polymarket · 0xf02f6b1868f472a8b794a7192d04b15aefb56f7f9899b8d7227d938e960d9ffd

2¢
$10K$0

↑ $100

polymarket · 0x3e3f48b652a0c668c0669d27eeb90f69419662e04c1ac0bfb2af714376a86288

1¢
$7K$1K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

40190.3%

IY (No)

613.9%

Adj IY

16442%

CRI

8

Overround

2.0%

LAS

0.18

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

40190.3%
613.9%
Adj IY
16442%
8
Overround
2.0%
LAS
0.18

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.