What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in May 2026?

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract resolves to $1 if silver (XAGUSD) closes below $72 at any point during May 2026, and $0 otherwise. At 47%, the market is pricing roughly even odds that silver will fall below this threshold during the month. Silver's price is currently driven by macroeconomic factors including Fed policy expectations, industrial demand, and safe-haven flows. The contract pricing reflects uncertainty around whether near-term economic weakness or geopolitical tensions will push precious metals lower, or whether current valuations will hold. The resolution depends on intraday and closing prices throughout the remainder of May, making daily price action and economic data releases the primary drivers of uncertainty through month-end.

• ›Current silver spot price relative to $72 strike: distance between today's trading level and the target determines probability of breach
• ›Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data: interest rate expectations directly influence precious metals valuations
• ›Industrial demand indicators and manufacturing PMI: economic strength affects silver beyond its safe-haven appeal
• ›Volatility regime: the contract requires only one touch below $72 during the month, not sustained closure below that level
• ›Competing outcomes: the runner-up ($70 threshold) at 27% and bullish $90 contract at 12% show market uncertainty about the direction and magnitude of moves

What moved the line

• May 24↓ $72↓23pp44→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 24↑ $80↑17pp52→69¢ · Polymarket
• May 20↑ $86↓16pp30→14¢ · Polymarket
• May 20↑ $80↑12pp32→44¢ · Polymarket
• May 20↑ 78↑11pp56→67¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds