Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with an 80,212% annualized yield on the Yes side despite $1.4M open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 3¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than true probability. The sharp 7-day decline from 7¢ to 3¢ combined with a wide 5¢ spread and high cliff risk index (32) indicates thin order books and potential manipulation, while the 2,533% realized volatility on EVIV makes a 110 spike plausible but the market's dormancy (zero volume, 0.4 info arrivals per hour) leaves the price discovery mechanism broken with just 15 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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