Before Aug 1, 2026 · When will SpaceX IPO?: Before
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 97¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 13 inside When will SpaceX IPO?: Before.
Price history
98¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#9 of 13
Leader
Before Mar 1, 2027 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$46K
Identifier
KXIPOSPACEX-26AUG01
May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
97¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#9 of 13
13 outcomes · When will SpaceX IPO?: Before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$46K
Orderbook snapshot
97 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXIPOSPACEX-26AUG01
Event family
When will SpaceX IPO?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$46K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Before Mar 1, 2027 99¢
Current share
3%
Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27MAR01
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27FEB01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27JAN01
Before Jun 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27JUN01
Before May 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27MAY01
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-27APR01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26OCT01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26AUG01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26SEP01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26DEC01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01
Before Jun 1, 2026
kalshi · KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.