When will SpaceX IPO
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
353 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will SpaceX IPO
When will SpaceX IPO?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01
Analysis
This 96% probability reflects market expectations that SpaceX will conduct an initial public offering before June 1, 2026—just weeks away. The high confidence appears driven by recent public signals from company leadership about IPO timelines and the competitive pressure from other AI and space companies pursuing public markets. However, the contract with only 10 cents trading volume on the June deadline suggests thin liquidity and uncertainty among actual traders about the exact timing. The main factors pushing this probability up or down would be any official IPO announcement from SpaceX or statements from CEO Elon Musk about timing. The June 1 deadline represents the primary near-term catalyst; if SpaceX does not launch its IPO by then, the market would likely reprice significantly to later dates like July or beyond. Secondary considerations include regulatory approval speed from the SEC and market conditions that could delay the offering.
- ›SpaceX has not yet filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC as of early May 2026, which is typically required 1-3 months before IPO execution
- ›Trading volume on the June 1 contract is only $36,524 in 24-hour volume compared to the July 1 contract at $1,191, suggesting traders may not be confident in the near-term timing
- ›The July 1 contract trades at 79 cents, significantly lower than the 96% leader, indicating material probability mass on delays beyond June
- ›Historical IPO timelines for major aerospace/tech companies typically require 4-8 weeks of SEC review after filing, creating a compressed schedule for a June close
- ›Elon Musk's public statements on IPO timing have historically shifted and are not always followed by immediate execution
Recently closed in ai tech
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 15% · 1d
- In which month will SpaceX IPOlast 97% · 1d
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQlast 96% · 1d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)last 97% · 1d
- How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 90-100Blast 97% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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