Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Leader sits at 61% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
1
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 1
0xe67f4d…33bb
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 6 or lower
0x284c11…678e
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 4
0x6c8a44…2562
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 2
0x376f0a…1aeb
Analysis
Markets currently estimate a 56% probability that 2026 will rank as the third-hottest year on record, with a 33% chance it ranks second. This reflects expectations based on current climate trends, ocean temperatures, and historical warming patterns. The probability would shift if near-term monthly temperature data diverges significantly from forecasts or if El Niño/La Niña conditions intensify or weaken unexpectedly. Annual temperature rankings are finalized by major climate agencies (NOAA, NASA, WMO) typically in January 2027, making this a medium-term resolved market. The current odds suggest significant uncertainty between ranking outcomes 1–3, with minimal probability assigned to rankings 4 or lower, indicating broad consensus that 2026 will be among the warmest years recorded.
- ›Global temperature data from January–April 2026 shows how 2026 tracks relative to 2023 (currently warmest on record) and 2024; sustained anomalies above or below expectations shift ranking probabilities
- ›Monthly NOAA and NASA temperature releases through December 2026 will be observed; sustained patterns diverging from historical trends would alter market expectations materially
- ›Oceanic heat content measurements and sea-surface temperatures are leading indicators; significant cooling or warming events (persistent La Niña vs. warm conditions) directly influence annual rankings
- ›El Niño/La Niña phase strength during 2026 affects global temperature; transitions between phases create upside or downside volatility for final rankings
- ›Official year-end temperature rankings from NOAA, NASA, and other agencies (released January 2027) will resolve the contract; methodology differences between agencies occasionally create minor ranking variations
What moved the line
- Jun 51↑4pp29→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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