SimpleFunctions

Where will Bernardo Silva go next

AC Milan is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside Where will Bernardo Silva go next.

Price history

4¢ current

+3¢
0¢5¢
May 27, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Bernardo Silva's next club is AC Milan before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

AC Milan

Rank

#3 of 10

Leader

Barcelona 50¢

Range

1¢-50¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02BSILVA-ACM

May 28, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$46

Family rank

#3 of 10

10 outcomes · Where will Bernardo Silva go next

Closes

Oct 9, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 3¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢260
2¢32
AskSize
3¢30
4¢350
84¢1.9K
96¢54
97¢30

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Bernardo Silva's next club is AC Milan before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 9, 2026

Identifier

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02BSILVA-ACM

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.