Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates an 8% chance that Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 2025 Alaska summit will occur at a specific location covered by one of the available contract outcomes. The low probability reflects the high uncertainty inherent in predicting where two world leaders will meet months in advance, combined with the possibility that they may not meet again before the market's resolution date. The current level is primarily driven by the difficulty of pinpointing a single venue when multiple countries could plausibly host such a diplomatic event, and by the compressed timeframe between the August 2025 meeting and typical market resolution windows. Key catalysts include official diplomatic announcements about scheduled summits, geopolitical developments that might prompt accelerated or delayed meetings, and any public statements from either administration about planned engagements. The market will sharpen significantly once concrete meeting plans are announced through official diplomatic channels.

• ›Official bilateral diplomatic schedule: Announcements from the U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry stating planned summit locations and dates would directly resolve or narrow contract outcomes
• ›Geopolitical crisis events: Major international incidents occurring after August 2025 could accelerate or prevent a follow-up meeting, affecting whether one occurs during the contract's timeframe
• ›Third-country diplomatic precedent: Historical patterns of where U.S. and Russian leaders have met (neutral venues like Geneva, Helsinki, or summits in allied countries) provide baseline expectations
• ›Temporal constraint: The market's resolution deadline relative to August 2025 determines the window in which a meeting must occur to trigger any of these contracts
• ›Contract coverage gaps: If their next meeting occurs at a location not listed among the available outcomes, all contracts would fail to resolve as winners

What moved the line

• Aug 8China↑10pp7→17¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9China↑9pp17→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4China↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4Turkey↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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