Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?

The 82¢ price reflects strong conviction in a Waymo Dallas launch within 74 days, though the extreme 2249% implied yield on "No" signals severe tail risk pricing rather than genuine uncertainty—this asymmetry is typical of binary events approaching expiry with low liquidity ($366 daily volume). The 486% realized volatility and sharp 12¢ rally over seven days suggest recent positive news flow (likely related to Waymo's operational expansion), but the thin spread and modest open interest of $6.6K indicate this remains a niche market where large moves could occur on minimal order flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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