Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.7M open interest, suggesting the 15¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 10¢ spread and 2796% implied yield on the Yes side. With 74 days to expiry and only modest 7-day price appreciation (13¢ to 14¢), the market appears to be pricing in very low probability for Waymo's Denver launch, though the 704% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk index indicate significant uncertainty around resolution. The 1.2 info arrivals per hour suggest active monitoring of Waymo developments, making this a thin but closely-watched contract where any concrete Denver expansion news could trigger sharp repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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