Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12¢ price offering a staggering 3619% implied yield on a Yes position, yet zero 24-hour volume and only $4.8K open interest suggest minimal conviction behind either side. The 7-day price collapse from 19¢ to 12¢ combined with 819% realized volatility and a high cliff risk index (7) indicate sharp recent selling pressure, possibly reflecting skepticism about Waymo's Detroit timeline despite the company's ongoing expansion efforts. With 74 days to resolution and an info arrival rate of 0.4/hour, this illiquid market may be underpricing Waymo's actual probability of launching in Detroit by mid-2026, particularly given their established operations in other major metros.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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