Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?

This market has collapsed dramatically from 29¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative news about Waymo's London expansion timeline, yet the 9% price still implies meaningful probability despite the extremely tight 74-day window and minimal $109.7 daily volume. The 6560% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the long-odds pricing, but the 4.58 volatility ratio and 2717% realized volatility indicate extreme uncertainty—likely driven by sparse information flow (3.3 arrivals per hour) and the binary nature of regulatory approval in a foreign jurisdiction. With only 74 days to launch in a new market requiring UK regulatory clearance, the sharp repricing appears justified, though the wide 6¢ spread and low open interest suggest illiquidity could make exits difficult if sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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