What is the current probability for "Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 65 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 13454.4% and 23.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $437.666·OI $4,261.256·Closes Jun 30, 2026·65d remaining

0xc3ff5462722d803352fb9e89d90c0bef29d01cb9e1c0ceae5b2ed2fd219253bd

7-day price29 snapshots · 19 regime

8¢4¢ current

Apr 93¢Apr 25

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 13454.4%

IY (No) 23.4%

Adj IY 5045%

CRI 24

Overround 1.4%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	13454.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5045%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 9:25:20 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 9:23:51 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc3ff5462722d803352fb9e89d90c0bef29d01cb9e1c0ceae5b2ed2fd219253bd yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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