Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
This contract is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$314K
Best sibling
Anthropic 76¢
Ticker
0x482e9c8a…bc14
Market snapshot
OpenAI in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?. The displayed quote is 2¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $511. In the Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On) family, this outcome ranks #3 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:16 AM UTC.
Outcome
OpenAI
Family rank
#3 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
2¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 31, 2026
24h volume
$511
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Quote range
0¢-76¢
Family leader
Anthropic 76¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:16 AM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: 0x482e9c8ae3b39202959a8cef567ad60e253458115a59e1edf7d28fa04ce5bc14. Family volume: $314K.
Price history
2¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x482e9c8a…bc14
Event family
Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$314K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 76¢
Current share
6%
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x482e9c8ae3b39202959a8cef567ad60e253458115a59e1edf7d28fa04ce5bc14
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x9cede4a2937c7faf2f631ef56a963c554bca5fc1343460d1fd5898cc57e33bfd
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x0fd194f22208779b534ddabf26415977b21abe4727a8f1a44ed3b3b9af1c4e18
polymarket · 0xa4932209d91d0301addd39220d8ec418ab776128ccbd8d7c2997c20c174133c6
Baidu
polymarket · 0x4f89bf1d4b1e7e6a24003daf7a2dd9d30e044a2d9557dad98d3583fbd4dbaa5f
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x8ced37b18bdc5c108752b511c9c0c39cc7c8aa0008904a8debc6b273297a3506
Meta
polymarket · 0xd177d29b5572dddbb7082a3c0067299f10f776472809ee5bc36480a71ec82066
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x6f1b003390ad1a14058f019b83c29a024d50e85a91b4a2517a788c45a1b1b778
xAI
polymarket · 0x0e6184ea1dc67e2432c00c062651d76f78e609838560608bf68fb1629f2d268b
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0xbc387ec8177308461306cd6e97b574f392f7b1ff606852b2e0491db98d2c8325
Mistral
polymarket · 0x1d9eb512fc31a514bdf5ff3556ef8238b5a3dfa740687691c1db76e3fbfeba20
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xb15072a551705782f9d38238acbb9b41690a3306aca740db836e0db1acd7c4b9
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x4260b1342b4e10105d35d20f6d1806187f170c8d329be6d632183723ad3d5824
Meituan
polymarket · 0x6917d021d140d84533fbef439e0137371a640e50346f877e720c5ca329163477
Amazon
polymarket · 0x18841c9cd6cc22565a4ee8f2b64ede74c452fddb45fa9f03758ecd43224e40bc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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