Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
This contract is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 53¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$2K
Best sibling
Baidu 3¢
Ticker
0x19176669…a926
Market snapshot
Moonshot in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The displayed quote is 27¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $86. In the Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On) family, this outcome ranks #5 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Moonshot
Family rank
#5 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
27¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jun 30, 2026
Reported volume
$86
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Quote range
3¢-54¢
Family leader
Anthropic 54¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Venue identifier: 0x191766691f910869a369124f213d709e9d6d9bc1b1feb1efb74f75da3596a926. Family volume: $2K.
Price history
27¢ current
−3¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 53¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x19176669…a926
Event family
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 54¢
Current share
5%
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x191766691f910869a369124f213d709e9d6d9bc1b1feb1efb74f75da3596a926
Baidu
polymarket · 0x2172110cdd9752ecae395d77d65b66844d24565020f77dd544b143e84c877ebc
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x2fa398b0da1dddf91587ca5b78410460c1d418126226bcd45a02d35d0958f6e4
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x6a5c068ab21ca11d8fbd3f73ecc506128dfeb4570c5f60b784d78c1c385229b8
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x0f6c45c6164c81c2d0769edaef6fcb7c3839d1cf48111e81ba2b057380ef05d0
Meta
polymarket · 0x6a5e8fb58055fd9357688af01aabb8fc048faa0dc5aaadec00e86afd731ae873
Meituan
polymarket · 0x850c6757a6c12c47d52fba19bd54d83362d3d248d89f58fc9f2ef1592bed2e8a
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x7592697f64638b183f7ceb3c8933e3b19e193c3ff8edc959952d5595a9ba29d9
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x6224dde8680200e9b27d2834f7efc3fad04dee4f6cd2a79ed934e4900092a35a
Mistral
polymarket · 0xdc2d4e14d2e2128fac0739b4db5aff95d79b3abe014b88b92eea71a78bf2d5de
polymarket · 0x47f87fd6632b1066497c7e63137b8b1222fa75b8cdbc3f352fd48e8b611a7b1e
xAI
polymarket · 0xe219e7a9f735dbf4b360406a95adee8fe9e079a072ded3d9b539a5f0ac725a8d
Amazon
polymarket · 0xf865aca5862f476c4adc717d1ba6ba2b9a59ec83efa950d1297f213bb7bc6523
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xeafe109e1c4f880c601565aa295f21a43c43a2e8518c98b795bd285bc7392602
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x14b5599fcceff4bf48e447420d91f2f8a0bb752fb499df61a0303632ea4a9b2c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information
An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't
Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.
Resolution Ambiguity Score: Quantifying Rule-Risk Per Market
A heuristic 0-10 score for the rule risk on a prediction market, based on edge case count, venue dispute history, and source-of-truth specificity. The pre-trade discipline that catches Polymarket UMA disputes and Kalshi rule-mismatches before they catch you.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.