Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Leader sits at 52% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Anthropic
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Mistral
0xdc2d4e…d5de
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Microsoft
0x14b559…9b2c
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meta
0x6a5e8f…e873
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Moonshot
0x191766…a926
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): ByteDance
0x0f6c45…05d0
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Alibaba
0xeafe10…2602
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): DeepSeek
0x6a5c06…29b8
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Z.ai
0x759269…29d9
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Amazon
0xf865ac…6523
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): xAI
0xe219e7…5a8d
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Google
0x47f87f…7b1e
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic
0x2fa398…f6e4
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meituan
0x850c67…2e8a
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Baidu
0x217211…7ebc
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): OpenAI
0x6224dd…a35a
What moved the line
- May 7Alibaba↓7pp36→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Meta↑4pp22→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Mistral↓3pp36→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 7xAI↓3pp33→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Z.ai↓3pp32→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.