SimpleFunctions
AI & TechnologyWinner-take-all · 15 outcomes15 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 52d

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Leader sits at 52% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

Anthropic

runner-up 33¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

15

winner-take-all

Runner-up

33¢

Google

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$2

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

52 days

Venue

Polymarket

15 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAnthropic: 53% (3 days, 3 points)Anthropic: 53% on 2026-05-08Google: 37% (3 days, 3 points)Google: 37% on 2026-05-08Meta: 28% (3 days, 3 points)Meta: 28% on 2026-05-08
Anthropic53¢Google37¢Meta28¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

15 contracts$2
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Mistral

0xdc2d4e…d5de

25¢±0$2P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Microsoft

0x14b559…9b2c

26¢+2pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meta

0x6a5e8f…e873

30¢+2pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Moonshot

0x191766…a926

28¢+3pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): ByteDance

0x0f6c45…05d0

25¢+1pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Alibaba

0xeafe10…2602

17¢7pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): DeepSeek

0x6a5c06…29b8

4¢$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Z.ai

0x759269…29d9

25¢+3pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Amazon

0xf865ac…6523

7¢±0$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): xAI

0xe219e7…5a8d

28¢+2pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Google

0x47f87f…7b1e

33¢+1pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic

0x2fa398…f6e4

52¢1pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Meituan

0x850c67…2e8a

26¢+1pp$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Baidu

0x217211…7ebc

3¢$0P

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On): OpenAI

0x6224dd…a35a

11¢1pp$0P

What moved the line

  • May 7Alibaba7pp3629¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Meta4pp2226¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Mistral3pp3633¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7xAI3pp3330¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Z.ai3pp3229¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in technology

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.