Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
This contract is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 49¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$2K
Best sibling
Baidu 3¢
Ticker
0xe219e7a9…5a8d
Market snapshot
xAI in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The displayed quote is 28¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $79. In the Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On) family, this outcome ranks #4 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
xAI
Family rank
#4 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
28¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jun 30, 2026
Reported volume
$79
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Quote range
3¢-51¢
Family leader
Anthropic 51¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 2m ago
Venue identifier: 0xe219e7a9f735dbf4b360406a95adee8fe9e079a072ded3d9b539a5f0ac725a8d. Family volume: $2K.
Price history
28¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 52¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xe219e7a9…5a8d
Event family
Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 51¢
Current share
4%
xAI
polymarket · 0xe219e7a9f735dbf4b360406a95adee8fe9e079a072ded3d9b539a5f0ac725a8d
Baidu
polymarket · 0x2172110cdd9752ecae395d77d65b66844d24565020f77dd544b143e84c877ebc
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x2fa398b0da1dddf91587ca5b78410460c1d418126226bcd45a02d35d0958f6e4
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x6a5c068ab21ca11d8fbd3f73ecc506128dfeb4570c5f60b784d78c1c385229b8
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x0f6c45c6164c81c2d0769edaef6fcb7c3839d1cf48111e81ba2b057380ef05d0
Meta
polymarket · 0x6a5e8fb58055fd9357688af01aabb8fc048faa0dc5aaadec00e86afd731ae873
Meituan
polymarket · 0x850c6757a6c12c47d52fba19bd54d83362d3d248d89f58fc9f2ef1592bed2e8a
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x7592697f64638b183f7ceb3c8933e3b19e193c3ff8edc959952d5595a9ba29d9
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x6224dde8680200e9b27d2834f7efc3fad04dee4f6cd2a79ed934e4900092a35a
Mistral
polymarket · 0xdc2d4e14d2e2128fac0739b4db5aff95d79b3abe014b88b92eea71a78bf2d5de
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x191766691f910869a369124f213d709e9d6d9bc1b1feb1efb74f75da3596a926
polymarket · 0x47f87fd6632b1066497c7e63137b8b1222fa75b8cdbc3f352fd48e8b611a7b1e
Amazon
polymarket · 0xf865aca5862f476c4adc717d1ba6ba2b9a59ec83efa950d1297f213bb7bc6523
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xeafe109e1c4f880c601565aa295f21a43c43a2e8518c98b795bd285bc7392602
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x14b5599fcceff4bf48e447420d91f2f8a0bb752fb499df61a0303632ea4a9b2c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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