Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
This contract is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$12K
Best sibling
Anthropic 78¢
Ticker
0xc79461f8…afd4
Market snapshot
Z.ai in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?. The displayed quote is 1¢ from the visible bid/ask midpoint because the last venue price is zero. The cached market record reports reported volume of $663. In the Which company has the #3 AI model end of May? (Style Control On) family, this outcome ranks #9 of 15 by current quote across 15 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 9:49 AM UTC.
Outcome
Z.ai
Family rank
#9 of 15
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
1¢
Quote source
Bid/ask midpoint
Timing
Listed until May 31, 2026
Reported volume
$663
Family context
15 outcomes · Which company has the #3 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)
Quote range
0¢-78¢
Family leader
Anthropic 78¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 9:49 AM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: 0xc79461f8816a25788aeee27671e6c7258eee3ff8fee011afd58fd59c4097afd4. Family volume: $12K.
Price history
1¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc79461f8…afd4
Event family
Which company has the #3 AI model end of May? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 78¢
Current share
6%
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xc79461f8816a25788aeee27671e6c7258eee3ff8fee011afd58fd59c4097afd4
Anthropic
polymarket · 0xc83cce46b6e47df5bbed8afa93bbac7177b4b99d8cf9d6679fa4c5936d8d82db
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x1806491a154abd063227e26d7e899b12f27fbe5e5a72c4912b5e64453dd5de73
polymarket · 0x54932d5d01139e72c7bc93bb9573df278b0100738e292d1f7c19771eea74deda
OpenAI
polymarket · 0xac1f8eb73f6d204f31da736f5219bf9677f75101179b58e3bd941aed4d594b54
Meta
polymarket · 0x7f2aa0a85e918c6a553f20d05911dacb5e0bab5c0b41411c8aa3743da3564d8c
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x7d65ed0e415e2b0087ea60c74c0f98049e2b7d5e9590a35cc340c063391439c3
Meituan
polymarket · 0x95672669f5c805551a10e080f1413642cdd7a78cd1f3721572469f30fe9eefc7
xAI
polymarket · 0x8179cd128275fb34f6bfc2c6bc5a40c89bd7b19af0544e1ede717fb28fb1b6a5
Mistral
polymarket · 0xba81b9593477858db3aa9e663b5da95e6df9de2b194228e7dc30574f92c9a759
Baidu
polymarket · 0x90fa301ba0d26e447b0bfa960600bb325b15a6fb449ebcf33b60cc04e962f043
Amazon
polymarket · 0x538656a2a6662d10ae722cb4b5bb1ede9d12311bab8118f7775de561e09552ea
Moonshot
polymarket · 0x13acc88dfa6fcd1a2754ef058f027f3f30c3cb4ec190961eca3a2559b720f1dd
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x25d6757d33360b4505a3964cf0d33a23fb3f0ddb1d4afab4d21522036a9b573f
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x6c421dca2e52dd2aaa9cf4f9db534b5ef9e83f9a7d61f5fd3f06da0f1329708e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't
Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.
Resolution Ambiguity Score: Quantifying Rule-Risk Per Market
A heuristic 0-10 score for the rule risk on a prediction market, based on edge case count, venue dispute history, and source-of-truth specificity. The pre-trade discipline that catches Polymarket UMA disputes and Kalshi rule-mismatches before they catch you.
Your First Prediction Market Trade: End-to-End CLI Walkthrough
Step-by-step CLI tutorial for your first prediction market trade. Install, scan, create a thesis, find edges, check liquidity, place an order, and monitor — all from the command line.
When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information
An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.