Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
This contract is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
15
Family volume
$1.4M
Best sibling
Z.ai 2¢
Ticker
0xf3acb657…d161
Price history
1¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xf3acb657…d161
Event family
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1.4M
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Anthropic 70¢
Current share
14%
Moonshot
polymarket · 0xf3acb657b2330b6bb889fa473653a06c67e8e40ae1807adce83ee075ab91d161
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x62d3940c2c5881f4f380a416f329bfd654b4d8045a74e1cdbcc2a232eb113a83
Meituan
polymarket · 0x62790784a29c4738bc05f605b78cc9f4ce79dc1a3754bb0a503e446b15a903a5
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x406636e7a09039520dd75f69339f88422e8218bcd1065af6967df8b791124e9b
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x0ddfaf4e5c6f5e89f0d0ef22f0f57dfc71fde634f0778ced695e70e181f20b4e
Mistral
polymarket · 0x6007378c9ef6278d9e2a974da50b623a61285ae77f600cb31adbe4dad52dd4a9
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x2bdf398464f6ab3c974eaf70a1f1f0dbd63d96507a2605f7e7cf9bbbbd78bbc8
Anthropic
polymarket · 0x0811ed7f71c2466d04f9ba801c0e21c9cfb016385cdff97b5c9984df0fa5801e
Amazon
polymarket · 0x0a04358df1c9393660249ec1648790ea70c168cc8af8fd589df098db8d83e387
polymarket · 0xa3681c6be3faf6b4f05918ed0bc9786e41e600d9882c335907b5a3402bf93494
xAI
polymarket · 0xc2b5121b8b8da7d63cc127f7ecdd613477623707a023d581e05197c085fc41db
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x2424141026b447786c694617ad452c008b6a28c180e3d4307399cc097cbf5a32
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x6f02871c2f4ba487b11c87a163e576b20144c33b8d0878b396057fb6a406b540
Baidu
polymarket · 0x37fc579523224c3622f2b578268233eaed29dabd7b08d476f74ea5a1a0f33261
Meta
polymarket · 0xe0738027b5b1fedc415b34cb392fd3c4f5834c369485ab77b22535d13b116a20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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