Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?

The market has experienced dramatic momentum, surging 68% over seven days to 67¢, suggesting recent positive catalysts or shifting sentiment toward a Trump Ireland visit within the next 259 days. The extreme realized volatility of 674% and highly skewed implied yields (69.5% for Yes versus 286.5% for No) indicate substantial disagreement between contract sides, with No holders demanding outsized compensation despite the current bullish pricing. With $5.3M open interest but only $140K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate relative to position size, and the 3¢ spread suggests some friction—worth monitoring if this becomes a crowded trade into year-end 2026.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade