Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 47¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump South Korea visit, but the 159.6% implied yield on the Yes side and extreme 804% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and recent price swings—the market has already declined 3¢ over seven days.
Analysis
The 47¢ price reflects moderate conviction in a Trump South Korea visit, but the 159.6% implied yield on the Yes side and extreme 804% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty and recent price swings—the market has already declined 3¢ over seven days. With $3.98M open interest against just $61.8K daily volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the open interest size, and the 6.56 volatility ratio indicates outsized price sensitivity to new information arriving at 3.6 events per hour.
Resolution rules
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3ebd55f194a3645e64dceb8f78bf6b9682c24f778b8a20e0ec67e1ddd9bdcf58 yes 100