SimpleFunctions

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) · Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?.

Price history

4¢ current

46¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 28, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Outcome

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

Rank

#4 of 7

Leader

United Russia (ER) 59¢

Range

0¢-59¢

Family volume

$9.1M

Identifier

0x7b91997c...e252

May 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$615

Family rank

#4 of 7

7 outcomes · Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Family volume

$9.1M

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 4¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
3¢20
3¢24K
3¢371
3¢150
3¢153
3¢276
2¢31K
2¢11K
AskSize
4¢352
4¢32
4¢9
4¢848
4¢164
5¢145
5¢100
5¢437

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Identifier

0x7b91997c…e252

SF Signal
SF Index
3482.69
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6965.4%

IY (No)

12.1%

Adj IY

3483%

CRI

24

Overround

0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

political

Full indicator table

6965.4%
12.1%
Adj IY
3483%
24
Overround
0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.