Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

The LDPR's 5¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of winning the most seats, yet the asymmetric 4178% implied yield on Yes positions versus 11.6% on No suggests significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand. With $40,988 in open interest against only $10,161 in daily volume, liquidity is moderate relative to the position size, and the zero spread indicates tight pricing despite the extreme yield differential. The 166-day timeframe to the September 2026 Russian parliamentary elections provides substantial runway for political developments, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest the market isn't pricing in imminent catalysts that would dramatically shift LDPR's electoral prospects.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Indicators

Regime

Trade