Republican Party · Which party will win the Senate in 2026
Republican Party is priced at 56¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Which party will win the Senate in 2026?.
Price history
56¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Outcome
Republican Party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Republican Party 56¢
Range
46¢-56¢
Family volume
$2.7M
Identifier
0x86bfb53a...2587
Jun 11, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
55¢
Ask
56¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$2.7M
Orderbook snapshot
55 / 56¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
0x86bfb53a…2587
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 57¢, -1¢ versus this page.
Event family
Which party will win the Senate in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.7M
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican Party 56¢
Current share
47%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.